Capacity Building for Economic Forecasting and Planning at National and Local Levels

Project Goal

Economists discuss the future of Uzbekistan's economy
UNDP in Uzbekistan: Strengthening abilities in economic forecasting has helped Uzbekistan plan the best approach to its continued national growth


UNDP is working to provide policy makers with effective economic analysis and forecasting tools, which they can use in assessing the implications of the recent global financial crisis on the country, in identifying future policy directions, and in formulating sector and regional development programs.

The Government of Uzbekistan is still facing the implications of both the recent global financial crisis and the food and water crisis on the country's economy and the well-being of its population. In order to adequately respond to development challenges, and to apply the right policy options, the Government of Uzbekistan needs to undertake a solid assessment of the situation and produce balanced forecasts for future developments in the short and medium terms.  Taking into account the necessity of conducting thorough economic analysis and forecasting, the government has established the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR).

The project has contributed to enhancing human and institutional capacity, and to developing methodologies suited to Uzbekistan’s conditions that would enable the objective analysis of the national economy, as well as providing well-grounded economic forecasts and growth scenarios. The project also supports the development of country-specific methodologies for the analysis of economic growth factors and poverty indicators, for balancing medium term macroeconomic forecasting parameters, and for formulating regional development strategies.


Our Results


  • Prepared 8 analytical notes on the modelling of economic indicators and the factors of economic growth in Uzbekistan, which have been published and widely discussed;
  • Prepared 7 analytical reports on the assessment and promotion of regional development in Uzbekistan, which have been widely discussed;
  • Developed strategies for the social and economic development of the Andijan and Surkhandarya regions, jointly with respective regional administrations and with international institutions;
  • Established links with leading international research institutes including TNO (The Netherlands), IFO Institute (Germany), Leontief Centre, EMI RAN and MIRBIS (Russia). Cooperation with these institutes has included trainings and research activities in survey methodologies, economic modelling and forecasting, and regional planning;
  • Organised 4 annual Forums of Economists in Uzbekistan, and a Forum of Young Economist-Scientists, with the participation of local and international experts;
  • Conducted nationwide surveys on consumer demand and business climate in order to build the capacities of national partners. Respective methodologies have been successfully adopted by IFMR and the Ministry of Economy;
  • Established productive cooperation with international development organisations, especially GIZ in Uzbekistan.

Finances



Total Budget: USD 773,146
UNDP: USD 723,146
IFMR: USD 50,000
Overview
Status:
Active
Project Start Date:
April 2009
Estimated End Date:
December 2014
Geographic Coverage:
Tashkent
Focus Area:
Economic Governance
MDG:
1. Improve living standards and reduce malnutrition
Partners:
The Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research
Contacts
Nurmukhammad Yusupov, Project Officer
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